Pandemic (COVID) Forecast Manager
|Position||Pandemic (COVID) Forecast Manager|
|Reports To:||Pandemic DSS Lead|
|Location:||Remote until further notice|
|Status:||Full time, permanent|
The COVID Forecast Manager harnesses extensive COVID/Pandemic knowledge and resources to lead the Scarsin Pandemic forecast team to support client COVID decision making, while continuously improving COVID forecasting processes and systems, ensuring that forecast accuracy is consistently improving. This role works closely with client teams in Epidemiology and other Public Health and Hospital roles to ensure the consistent delivery of decision support insights to clients.
Duties & Responsibilities
- Prepares and assesses background information to support forecasting by collecting and collating COVID intelligence;
- Analyzes trends and identifies key drivers of COVID
- Produces and assesses guidelines to support forecasting efforts
- Leverages strong project management skills to efficiently manage weekly forecasting processes
- Leads the forecast team in gathering, analyzing and validating all data that can be used in preparing COVID decision support forecasts
- Performs ‘Sense-checks’ of the forecasts and insights and highlights any unexpected trends;
- Develops rules and methods for prioritizing forecasts based on policy/health priorities
- Works with the Scarsin teams to integrate COVID intelligence into the forecasts.
- Supports Forecast Review processes by preparing and presenting reports to senior management and implementing changes resulting from the forecast review.
- Establishes key metrics, measures and reports forecast accuracy
- Develops and reaches agreement with stakeholders on appropriate measures of forecast accuracy and forecast bias
- Analyzes trends and identifies opportunities for improving the accuracy of future sales forecasts
- Leads root-cause analysis into major forecast variances
- Reviews past forecasting performance and identifies major forecast variances
- Identifies and leads the implementation of opportunities to improve forecast accuracy, including collaboration with clients
- Develops repository of information that can be used to support future forecasting and risk analysis
- Develops policies and parameters relating to COVID Forecasting
- Ensures that documentation for the forecasting processes and systems is up-to-date and complies with company standards.
- Develops Standard Operating Procedures for forecasting processes
- Performs various other duties as delegated or assigned.
Required Knowledge, Skills, and Experience
The successful applicant will have:
- An undergraduate degree in Public Health, science, or math with preference given to those with a graduate degree in same;
- Proven forecasting experience and proficiency with statistical and forecasting fundamentals
- Proven management skills and experience
- Must have experience in forecasting, statistics and machine learning plus:
- Be familiar the fundamental concepts of statistics
- Have basic knowledge about supervised and unsupervised learning and algorithms;
- Be familiar with R language or equivalent statistical programming language.
- Understanding of health impact of forecasting and related decisions
- Proficiency with software systems and Excel
- Proven, motivated self-starter and leader with the ability to lead by example and manage priorities judiciously and approach and solve business problems;
- Demonstrated time management, problem solving and decision making competencies;
- Proven effective presentation, analytical and customer relationship abilities;
- Ability to comprehend, analyze and research problems of a complex nature, make decisions and/or present recommendations;
- Demonstrated ability to prioritize, multi-task and maintain flexibility in a fast-paced environment;
- Ability to work autonomously and in teams to effectively prioritize multiple projects and associated deliverables;
- Developed communication skills and the ability to work in a collaborative team environment;