COVID-19:

    Better Decisions Save Lives

    Latest Updates

    York Region uses Scarsin models to avoid lockdown

    York Region’s Chief Medical Officer of Health, Dr. Karim Kurji, tells CP24 how the Scarsin solution helps his team understand pandemic dynamics, including mobility and make confident decisions to keep the region out of a full lockdown.

    Watch the interview

    New Canada-wide forecast shows it’s not too late to slow COVID infections

    Scarsin’s latest look at Canada’s Health Regions for the rest of 2020 shows a rapid acceleration of COVID-19 infections, with 29 regions seeing 15+ cases per 100,000. Six regions will close the year with more than 500 cases per day! Alberta and Saskatchewan should brace for worsening infections for the rest of the year. The good news: If Toronto and Peel stay in Stage 1 lockdown for 28 days, they can reduce infections by about 23%, and in BC, continuing the recently announced restrictions, plus additional interventions can reduce cases by about 11%.

    See our full analysis

    Closing schools in Toronto and Peel can decelerate COVID-19

    Our latest scenario forecasts show that school closings will be key to slowing the pandemic in Toronto and Peel Region. Our platform is ready and able to help Ontario manage this serious situation.

    See our full analysis

    CBC profiles Scarsin’s mission to help Canadian public health decision makers

    Read the article from CBC.ca where some of Canada’s top epidemiologists validate the contribution the Scarsin platform could make to the country’s pandemic response.

    Read the article

    Peel Region could see 1,000 cases per day

    Scarsin’s latest Ontario forecast shows how early school closings and other interventions can slow the spread as the holiday season approaches. Watch our latest video to learn how our proven pandemic forecasting model can help public health decision makers save lives.

    Watch the video now

    New White Paper: A National Crisis Needs a National Response

    COVID-19 is an existential challenge to government, public health and corporate decision makers. It is an integrated challenge that demands nothing but the best decisions to protect the safety of the public, the economy and support the very fabric of society.

    Read the full article here.

    Canada’s Perplexing Pandemic Forecasting

    As we move into late Fall and watch the Wave II acceleration, we can see the growing impact of Canada’s lack of a cohesive pandemic modeling. Using recently published Ontario and Public Health Authority of Canada (PHAC) updates as examples, it’s obvious Canada can and must do better.

    Read the full article here.

    Wave II Will Be Long, Local and Late in Ontario

    As a province we stand at the precipice of an unparalleled risk ahead of us. The major outcome of how Ontario manages the risk of wave II will be the result of the decisions that are made in response to Covid-19 spread. The best decisions for Ontarians will be informed by proactive forecasting with a longer planning horizon.

    Read the full article here.

    Let’s make informed decisions about school reopening

    As we face the uncertainty of opening schools, we have to ask, are the right decisions being made? This extensive report provides insights on critical questions on the minds of Canadians. It uses deep scenario forecasting to provide much-needed answers. This is a must-read regardless of whether you have kids returning to school!

    Read the full article here.

    A national crisis deserves a national pandemic decision system

    Great decision makers need to understand where COVID-19 risk is going to be and to proactively implement strategies to minimize risk. Forecasting is what informs decision makers. It is the difference between reactive and proactive. COVID-19 exploits every weakness in every system 24/7 without rest, and this is being demonstrated on a daily basis.

    Read the full article here.

    Proven enterprise-class forecasting for confident decision-making

    As the world’s business leaders and public health policymakers struggle to manage the impacts of the coronavirus crisis, they need powerful, proven platforms that can support complex decisions based on ever-changing data.

    Scarsin’s Covid-19 solutions bring together disparate data sources to support the real-world decisions public and private sector organizations will be making in 2020 and 2021.

    Our Solution

    New Scarsin forecast shows Ontario’s hot spots getting hotter

    This video provides an updated forecast for Ontario based on data from November 14. It also explains the different modeling approaches and why the Scarsin forecasting system is the best available scientific knowledge in alignment to the Provincial goals for a safe and open Ontario.

    Tour the Scarsin COVID-19 Solution

    See how we bring disparate pandemic data together for powerful scenario analysis and forecasting tools that support critical public health decisions that save lives and speed economic recovery..

    Scarsin COVID-19 Demo — School Opening

    Watch this tour of the Scarsin decision support system as it forecasts various approaches to school opening to better inform decision makers.

    Downloads

    Canada Forecast Update November 23

    Scarsin’s latest look at Canada’s Health Regions for the rest of 2020 shows a rapid acceleration of COVID-19 infections, with 29 regions seeing 15+ cases per 100,000. Six regions will close the year with more than 500 cases per day! Alberta and Saskatchewan should brace for worsening infections for the rest of the year. The good news: If Toronto and Peel stay in Stage 1 lockdown for 28 days, they can reduce infections by about 23%, and in BC, continuing the recently announced restrictions, plus additional interventions can reduce cases by about 11%.

    Click here to download our forecast.

    Download the National Crisis Response White Paper

    Join our mailing list to receive this white paper and further updates!

    Thank you for subscribing! The White Paper should open in a new tab and be emailed to you separately.

    Ontario’s School Forecast Scenarios

    The majority of COVID-19 cases are in Toronto and Peel Region. We have an opportunity to decelerate infections by closing schools early and opening them late after the holidays. Our scenarios show how good decisions now can reduce the number of cases by over 8,000 by early 2021.

    Click here to download our forecast.

    ontario forecasting update file thumbna

    Do Peel Region and Toronto need to shut down?

    Scarsin’s November 17 forecast for Ontario highlights key risks and opportunities to flatten the curve.

    Click here to download the slides.

    A proven platform that saves lives

    Scarsin’s powerful forecasting platform is used by F500 companies around the world to support decision making.  Learn how we are applying our enterprise-class platform to fight COVID-19 in Canada.

    Click here to download the overview

    Why Scarsin?

    Our Experience

    Our Technology

    • When lives depend on decisions, Scarsin delivers
    • 15+ years serving Global Life Sciences leaders including: Bayer, Pfizer, Eli Lilly, Janssen and Gilead
    • Experience with 100+ diseases including: Infectious disease, hypertension, COPD, Diabetes, Oncology and Stroke prevention
    • Hundreds of Patient Flow Forecast models developed
    • Experience with robust epidemiology data
    • Agile methodology for fast iterations
    • Advanced capabilities for choosing and deploying the right forecasting methodologies, including robust Patient Cohorting
    • Data science experts leveraging healthcare data to improve decision making
    • A skilled and diverse team, including a PhD who developed H1N1 models
    • Compliance with the most stringent data security and audit standards
    Our Technology

    Media Information

    Paul Minshull, CEO & Founder

    Paul Minshull is the Founder and Chief Executive Officer of Scarsin Corporation and a leading authority in global forecasting methodologies and technology enablement. He founded Scarsin in 2002 with a mission to improve the quality and accuracy of financial forecasting, particularly in the life sciences industry. The company’s technology is used by global organizations including Bayer, Eli Lilly, Gilead and Pfizer. In response to the coronavirus pandemic, Paul redeployed an expert team to build a best practice forecasting solution to support public and private sector responses. Based in Markham, ON, the Scarsin team has deployed hundreds of global forecasting solutions, covering more than 100 diseases.

    Prior to founding Scarsin, Paul led the CNS team at Eli Lilly, overseeing products including Prozac, Zyprexa, and Cymbalta. Paul is a frequent speaker and panel expert at conferences world-wide. He has an undergraduate degree and MBA, both from McMaster University.

    Paul Minshull Scarsin

    Kenneth May, Vice President, Consulting

    Kenneth May is the Vice President of Consulting Services for Scarsin Corporation. He works with global life sciences companies to build and manage best-in-class forecasting systems. His current focus is working with public and private sector organizations to streamline their coronavirus pandemic planning using the Scarsin platform. He joined the organization in 2014 and has since held roles as Chief Technology Officer and Vice President of Project Management.

    Prior to joining Scarsin, Kenneth held a variety of senior project management roles and oversaw large implementations for companies including Davis + Henderson, Dapasoft and Prudential of America. He is a graduate of the University of Waterloo and is a certified Project Management Professional (PMP).

    Kenneth May Scarsin

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    Download the National Crisis Response White Paper

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