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    Wave II Will Be Long, Local and Late in Ontario

    As a province we stand at the precipice of an unparalleled risk ahead of us. The major outcome of how Ontario manages the risk of wave II will be the result of the decisions that are made in response to Covid-19 spread. The best decisions for Ontarians will be informed by proactive forecasting with a longer planning horizon.

    Read the full article here.

    Let’s make informed decisions about school reopening

    As we face the uncertainty of opening schools, we have to ask, are the right decisions being made? This extensive report provides insights on critical questions on the minds of Canadians. It uses deep scenario forecasting to provide much-needed answers. This is a must-read regardless of whether you have kids returning to school!

    Read the full article here.

    A national crisis deserves a national pandemic decision system

    Great decision makers need to understand where COVID-19 risk is going to be and to proactively implement strategies to minimize risk. Forecasting is what informs decision makers. It is the difference between reactive and proactive. COVID-19 exploits every weakness in every system 24/7 without rest, and this is being demonstrated on a daily basis.

    Read the full article here.

    Proven enterprise-class forecasting for confident decision-making

    As the world’s healthcare providers, businesses and public health policymakers struggle to manage the impacts of the coronavirus crisis, they need powerful, proven platforms that can support complex, potentially life-saving decisions.

    Scarsin designed its Covid-19 solution with a focus on the real-world decisions public health, hospitals and businesses will be making in 2020 and 2021.

    This powerful, proven platform supports scenario development and decision making for a number of transmission considerations, including:

    • How many potential infections would be reduced by a mandatory mask order?
    • How can we change the impact of congregate settings?
    • What is the impact of work commuting to nearby health regions?
    • What contact and quarantine capacity do we need to meet future demand?
    • Which school opening scenario is safest?
    • What will be the impact of imported infection when international travel is reopened?
    • How will various vaccination scenarios impact our region?
    • What are the supply chain implications of different scenarios?
    scarsin covid forecast

    Scarsin’s Covid-19 software as a service (SaaS) platform brings disparate data into a single environment for rapid scenario modelling and insights in a user friendly web dashboard.  It is ready to provide healthcare decision makers strong benefits, today.

    • Increase diagnostic & predictive insights
    • Improved collaboration
    • Increase planning time horizon
    • Improve forecast scenario capability
    • Better understand & mitigate risk
    • Focus decision makers on decisions

    Ideal for:

    • National and international public health agencies
    • Provinces/States in collaboration with Health Regions/Counties public health and hospital decision makers

    Our Solution

    Scarsin COVID-19 — Ontario’s Second Wave

    As Ontario enters its second wave of COVID-19 with hundreds of new cases daily, watch this demo to see our response.

    Tour the Scarsin COVID-19 Solution

    See how we bring disparate pandemic data together for powerful scenario analysis and forecasting tools that support critical public health decisions that save lives and speed economic recovery..

    Scarsin COVID-19 Demo — School Opening

    Watch this tour of the Scarsin decision support system as it forecasts various approaches to school opening to better inform decision makers.

    Download the Overview

    Why Scarsin?

    Our Experience

    Our Technology

    • When lives depend on decisions, Scarsin delivers
    • 15+ years serving Global Life Sciences leaders including: Bayer, Pfizer, Eli Lilly, Janssen and Gilead
    • Experience with 100+ diseases including: Infectious disease, hypertension, COPD, Diabetes, Oncology and Stroke prevention
    • Hundreds of Patient Flow Forecast models developed
    • Experience with robust epidemiology data
    • Agile methodology for fast iterations
    • Advanced capabilities for choosing and deploying the right forecasting methodologies, including robust Patient Cohorting
    • Data science experts leveraging healthcare data to improve decision making
    • A skilled and diverse team, including a PhD who developed H1N1 models
    • Compliance with the most stringent data security and audit standards
    Our Technology

    Media Information

    Paul Minshull, CEO & Founder

    Paul Minshull is the Founder and Chief Executive Officer of Scarsin Corporation and a leading authority in global forecasting methodologies and technology enablement. He founded Scarsin in 2002 with a mission to improve the quality and accuracy of financial forecasting, particularly in the life sciences industry. The company’s technology is used by global organizations including Bayer, Eli Lilly, Gilead and Pfizer. In response to the coronavirus pandemic, Paul redeployed an expert team to build a best practice forecasting solution to support public and private sector responses. Based in Markham, ON, the Scarsin team has deployed hundreds of global forecasting solutions, covering more than 100 diseases.

    Prior to founding Scarsin, Paul led the CNS team at Eli Lilly, overseeing products including Prozac, Zyprexa, and Cymbalta. Paul is a frequent speaker and panel expert at conferences world-wide. He has an undergraduate degree and MBA, both from McMaster University.

    Paul Minshull Scarsin

    Kenneth May, Vice President, Consulting

    Kenneth May is the Vice President of Consulting Services for Scarsin Corporation. He works with global life sciences companies to build and manage best-in-class forecasting systems. His current focus is working with public and private sector organizations to streamline their coronavirus pandemic planning using the Scarsin platform. He joined the organization in 2014 and has since held roles as Chief Technology Officer and Vice President of Project Management.

    Prior to joining Scarsin, Kenneth held a variety of senior project management roles and oversaw large implementations for companies including Davis + Henderson, Dapasoft and Prudential of America. He is a graduate of the University of Waterloo and is a certified Project Management Professional (PMP).

    Kenneth May Scarsin

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    COVID-19 Forecasting Dashboardfor illustration only

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