Latest Updates
Herd Immunity is Elusive but Canadians Can be Optimistic
By Paul Minshull, CEO & Founder, Covid19 Solution Architect
As most areas in the country stagger under the onslaught of Wave III, there is ongoing chatter about accelerating vaccination getting Canada to “herd immunity”. But what is herd immunity? Will we ever get there? And does it matter anyway? For this article we built a medium- and long-range forecast for Canada that shows:
- Canada will likely not achieve herd immunity in 2021, and transmission threats will remain
- The most likely scenario is that approximately 66% of the population will have some form of immunity by October
- Canada will likely face a Wave IV in the Fall, but with lower risks than we saw in prior waves
- Things will improve dramatically in 2021, but not quite return to “full normal”
- We should expect some level of ongoing public health measures for the time being
Will Ontario Welcome Spring with a Third Wave and Another Lockdown?
By Paul Minshull, CEO & Founder, Covid19 Solution Architect
When will it end? When will life return to normal? Will we have another lockdown? When will I get my vaccination? There’s good news and bad news for Ontario this Spring. On the one hand, vaccine deployments will save lives and reduce hospitalizations.
On the other, a return to the colour system combined with new variants will likely drive a third wave and a 30 to 60 day lockdown starting in early April. Our robust modeling solution was built to inform the medium- and long-term scenarios that help us answer the questions on the minds of Canadians. Learn more about the road ahead in our latest forecast.
The Amazing Race: Variants vs. Vaccines
By Paul Minshull, CEO & Founder, Covid19 Solution Architect
It is an understatement that Ontario’s COVID world is growing more complex by the day. There are now three important dynamics converging on the province.
- The impact of lockdowns
- The initial deployment of vaccines
- New, more transmissible variants gaining hold
In this forecast, based on January 18 data, our focus is on these new variants and their impact on decision making to the end of March – precisely the challenges the Scarsin platform is designed to address.
Ontario’s Lockdowns Linger, with No Easy Way Out
The January 12 lock down announcement by Premier Ford makes it clear that Canada’s most populous province has a long, tough road ahead. But we’re concerned that the forecasting model on which decisions are being based is not the best approach when next generation tools can help map the way forward.
Check out the latest forecast for Ontario using the world-class Scarsin forecasting system.
University of Toronto and Scarsin team up to support public health
We are thrilled to partner with the University of Toronto’s Dalla Lana School of Public Health Institute for Pandemics to support the critical policy decisions that lie ahead. Thank you David Fisman, Ashleigh Tuite and the rest of the IFP team for your incredible insights and support!
Together we will support federal, provincial and regional public health decision-makers, share our insights throughout the academic communicate and use our platform to support curriculum development around pandemic modelling.
York Region uses Scarsin models to avoid lockdown
York Region’s Chief Medical Officer of Health, Dr. Karim Kurji, tells CP24 how the Scarsin solution helps his team understand pandemic dynamics, including mobility and make confident decisions to keep the region out of a full lockdown.
New Canada-wide forecast shows it’s not too late to slow COVID infections
Scarsin’s latest look at Canada’s Health Regions for the rest of 2020 shows a rapid acceleration of COVID-19 infections, with 29 regions seeing 15+ cases per 100,000. Six regions will close the year with more than 500 cases per day! Alberta and Saskatchewan should brace for worsening infections for the rest of the year. The good news: If Toronto and Peel stay in Stage 1 lockdown for 28 days, they can reduce infections by about 23%, and in BC, continuing the recently announced restrictions, plus additional interventions can reduce cases by about 11%.
Closing schools in Toronto and Peel can decelerate COVID-19
Our latest scenario forecasts show that school closings will be key to slowing the pandemic in Toronto and Peel Region. Our platform is ready and able to help Ontario manage this serious situation.
CBC profiles Scarsin’s mission to help Canadian public health decision makers
Read the article from CBC.ca where some of Canada’s top epidemiologists validate the contribution the Scarsin platform could make to the country’s pandemic response.
Peel Region could see 1,000 cases per day
Scarsin’s latest Ontario forecast shows how early school closings and other interventions can slow the spread as the holiday season approaches. Watch our latest video to learn how our proven pandemic forecasting model can help public health decision makers save lives.
New White Paper: A National Crisis Needs a National Response
COVID-19 is an existential challenge to government, public health and corporate decision makers. It is an integrated challenge that demands nothing but the best decisions to protect the safety of the public, the economy and support the very fabric of society.
Canada’s Perplexing Pandemic Forecasting
As we move into late Fall and watch the Wave II acceleration, we can see the growing impact of Canada’s lack of a cohesive pandemic modeling. Using recently published Ontario and Public Health Authority of Canada (PHAC) updates as examples, it’s obvious Canada can and must do better.
Wave II Will Be Long, Local and Late in Ontario
As a province we stand at the precipice of an unparalleled risk ahead of us. The major outcome of how Ontario manages the risk of wave II will be the result of the decisions that are made in response to Covid-19 spread. The best decisions for Ontarians will be informed by proactive forecasting with a longer planning horizon.
Let’s make informed decisions about school reopening
As we face the uncertainty of opening schools, we have to ask, are the right decisions being made? This extensive report provides insights on critical questions on the minds of Canadians. It uses deep scenario forecasting to provide much-needed answers. This is a must-read regardless of whether you have kids returning to school!
A national crisis deserves a national pandemic decision system
Great decision makers need to understand where COVID-19 risk is going to be and to proactively implement strategies to minimize risk. Forecasting is what informs decision makers. It is the difference between reactive and proactive. COVID-19 exploits every weakness in every system 24/7 without rest, and this is being demonstrated on a daily basis.
Proven enterprise-class forecasting for confident decision-making
As the world’s business leaders and public health policymakers struggle to manage the impacts of the coronavirus crisis, they need powerful, proven platforms that can support complex decisions based on ever-changing data.
Scarsin’s Covid-19 solutions bring together disparate data sources to support the real-world decisions public and private sector organizations will be making in 2020 and 2021.
Our Solution
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Canada Forecast Update November 23
Scarsin’s latest look at Canada’s Health Regions for the rest of 2020 shows a rapid acceleration of COVID-19 infections, with 29 regions seeing 15+ cases per 100,000. Six regions will close the year with more than 500 cases per day! Alberta and Saskatchewan should brace for worsening infections for the rest of the year. The good news: If Toronto and Peel stay in Stage 1 lockdown for 28 days, they can reduce infections by about 23%, and in BC, continuing the recently announced restrictions, plus additional interventions can reduce cases by about 11%.
Download the National Crisis Response White Paper
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Ontario’s School Forecast Scenarios
The majority of COVID-19 cases are in Toronto and Peel Region. We have an opportunity to decelerate infections by closing schools early and opening them late after the holidays. Our scenarios show how good decisions now can reduce the number of cases by over 8,000 by early 2021.
Do Peel Region and Toronto need to shut down?
Scarsin’s November 17 forecast for Ontario highlights key risks and opportunities to flatten the curve.
A proven platform that saves lives
Scarsin’s powerful forecasting platform is used by F500 companies around the world to support decision making. Learn how we are applying our enterprise-class platform to fight COVID-19 in Canada.
Why Scarsin?
Our Experience
Our Technology
- When lives depend on decisions, Scarsin delivers
- 15+ years serving Global Life Sciences leaders including: Bayer, Pfizer, Eli Lilly, Janssen and Gilead
- Experience with 100+ diseases including: Infectious disease, hypertension, COPD, Diabetes, Oncology and Stroke prevention
- Hundreds of Patient Flow Forecast models developed
- Experience with robust epidemiology data
- Agile methodology for fast iterations
- Advanced capabilities for choosing and deploying the right forecasting methodologies, including robust Patient Cohorting
- Data science experts leveraging healthcare data to improve decision making
- A skilled and diverse team, including a PhD who developed H1N1 models
- Compliance with the most stringent data security and audit standards
Media Information
Paul Minshull, CEO & Founder
Paul Minshull is the Founder and Chief Executive Officer of Scarsin Corporation and a leading authority in global forecasting methodologies and technology enablement. He founded Scarsin in 2002 with a mission to improve the quality and accuracy of financial forecasting, particularly in the life sciences industry. The company’s technology is used by global organizations including Bayer, Eli Lilly, Gilead and Pfizer. In response to the coronavirus pandemic, Paul redeployed an expert team to build a best practice forecasting solution to support public and private sector responses. Based in Markham, ON, the Scarsin team has deployed hundreds of global forecasting solutions, covering more than 100 diseases.
Prior to founding Scarsin, Paul led the CNS team at Eli Lilly, overseeing products including Prozac, Zyprexa, and Cymbalta. Paul is a frequent speaker and panel expert at conferences world-wide. He has an undergraduate degree and MBA, both from McMaster University.
Kenneth May, Vice President, Consulting
Kenneth May is the Vice President of Consulting Services for Scarsin Corporation. He works with global life sciences companies to build and manage best-in-class forecasting systems. His current focus is working with public and private sector organizations to streamline their coronavirus pandemic planning using the Scarsin platform. He joined the organization in 2014 and has since held roles as Chief Technology Officer and Vice President of Project Management.
Prior to joining Scarsin, Kenneth held a variety of senior project management roles and oversaw large implementations for companies including Davis + Henderson, Dapasoft and Prudential of America. He is a graduate of the University of Waterloo and is a certified Project Management Professional (PMP).
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